by Jason Nichols, Ph.D.

Vladimir Putin has proven to be a formidable adversary for the United States.  According to the US intelligence community, he was involved in undermining US election integrity through a massive disinformation campaign in 2016. Since then, Americans have less trust in their news media than ever, which has arguably had tremendous consequences with the COVID-19 pandemic.  Public health officials who appear on news media are perceived to be partisan, and a sizable percentage of Americans turn to sources that confirm their public health and political biases.  Conservatives no longer believe mainstream media because of its unproven claims during the Russiagate scandal.  Liberals no longer trust the media because they don’t know if it has been compromised by a foreign entities.  Also, by more or less picking the side of Trump in 2016, there are some Americans on the political right who have become fierce defenders of Putin and Russia, and would rather turn their attention to China as a potential threat to US hegemony.

Most recently, Putin has arguably outmaneuvered the EU and US with his standoff in Ukraine.  Putin does not want Ukraine to ever join NATO like some other former eastern bloc countries.  He has placed 120,000 troops on the Russian border it shares with Ukraine, and perhaps more importantly he’s put supplies like hospitals and fuel there, signaling an imminent invasion.  Western nations quickly came to Ukraine’s aid rhetorically, threatening serious consequences if a Russian invasion were to occur. But Putin knows that the US and EU countries and their people are fatigued from war.  These nations cannot even think about threatening a physical confrontation with Russia over Ukraine particularly after 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq that cost trillions, only to see the previous regime return hours after allied forces evacuated.  A physical  confrontation with Russia would be catastrophic and would potentially lead to more lives lost in months than Afghanistan did in decades.  The American people would be outraged about entering into an interventionist war with a powerful nation over a country that most cannot find on a map.

Putin is well aware of these facts.  He also knows that after the 2014 Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, the EU and US cannot afford to call his bluff.  He has no intention of invading in the immediate future, but he has gotten the US and its NATO allies to the negotiating table over Ukraine and simultaneously shaken the fledgling nation-state to its core.

Putin certainly wants Ukraine to again be part of Russia, but he is willing to settle for a scared Ukrainian public that may turn on its current leaders in favor of more pro-Russian officials who can offer security and good relations with its more powerful neighbor.

Putin is strategically brilliant and had he been born in the US, he could have been a record executive or music mogul.  He is much like Sean Puffy Combs (or Diddy or Brother Love).  Combs has had to let artists go in the past, like Russia was forced to do with Ukraine, but with the notable exception of The Lox, none have been successful without him, and many have faded into obscurity.  Puff was called out for a Verzuz battle by Jermaine Dupri.  While Puffy undoubtedly has the stronger total catalog, many of his artists wouldn’t perform with him or would call for very high compensation.  He of course has Biggie’s music, but the late great Big Poppa isn’t here to perform it.  For every Mary J. Blige record Puff plays, there is an Usher or Mariah Carey record Dupri can play.  Puff instead got on an instagram live with Dupri, Fat Joe, and Snoop Dogg, and proceeded to play Biggie records challenging Dupri to play something over IG Live - for free - where the performance means nothing.  Dupri knew he couldn’t win on IG with a Kris Kross or Da Brat record over Biggie. Puffy strategically avoided a tough battle, and tried to use it as a springboard to battle with Dr. Dre, which would be more advantageous to his legacy and more lucrative.  Thus far, Dre has not been swayed.

Puff and Putin have the same instincts.  They will not allow entities that were once with them to flourish without them.  The US and European nations have been looking alot like Jermaine Dupri.  They have all the tools to defeat their adversary, but appear to be getting caught off guard.

--

Jason Nichols, Ph.D.

Senior Lecturer

African American Studies Department

University of Maryland

Twitter: @drjasonnichols