Written by Jason Nichols, Ph.D.

“There’s a war going on outside no man is safe from”

• Prodigy 

I recall walking through my driveway with my cellphone pressed closely against my ear before the 2020 election.  I made an earnest case to my father that if Trump lost the election, there would be unprecedented violence.  Trump had primed his followers to believe elections were illegitimate unless they won both the popular vote and the electoral college.  Who could forget his claim after losing the popular vote in 2016 that millions of illegal votes were cast, absent any evidence? In fact, he had begun claiming fraud before the 2016 election, just in case he lost.  Over 2020, we saw plots to kidnap Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer and armed aggressive GOP demonstrators outside of the state house in Michigan.  Trump was not afraid to encourage his followers to use violence.  He told supporters in Iowa to “knock the crap out of” protesters if they threw tomatoes and claimed he’d like to personally punch one protester in the face in Las Vegas.  I’ve never before wanted as badly to be wrong.

Then I turned on my television on January 6, 2021. I witnessed scenes at the US Capitol that few thought was possible.  Capitol police being attacked with flag poles and chased around the building.  Windows being broken. Offices being looted. The Rotunda being desecrated with the Stars and Bars.

Since then, a Center of Politics at University of Virginia survey shows that 50% of Trump supporters want the country to split.  Congressman and viral dead tree boxer Madison Cawthorn has openly discussed taking up arms against his fellow Americans who have different views from him.  One of Donald Trump’s closest advisors and a retired Lieutenant General, Michael Flynn agreed with the suggestion that we may need a coup like what has occurred in Myanmar.

Barbara Walter, a professor at UCSD and author of “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them”, lays out how our present environment is putting us on a path toward civil war.  One of the first characteristics of a country headed toward civil war is when political parties and factions organized based on identity politics and ethnic divisions rather than political ideology.  While Republicans are attracting a few more non-white voters, they are simultaneously arguing against immigration, anti-racism in education, and pushed white supremacist ideas like the great replacement theory.  Another feature of a nation on the brink of civil war is when a dominant group begins to decline.  Our latest census shows that the U.S. is diversifying and those who identify as only white are declining.  High profile government officials on the left are also young brown women.  All of this is a recipe for civil war.

Walter states that our civil war would not look like 1861.  The divisions we have are not as clearly defined regionally.  We would experience something closer to Northern Ireland, with random but frequent acts of terror and guerilla warfare.

If Trump loses in 2024, there is certainly a chance that there will be blood.  I hope I’m wrong (again).