Dreams and Nightmares: One Potential Running Mate Could Make Trump Very Difficult to Defeat in 2024
Written By Jason Nichols, Ph.D.
With President Biden stumbling in the polls, inflation rising, the apparent death of his signature social spending bill, and inexplicable inability to market and take credit for his many successes, twice impeached former President Donald Trump bides his time, continuing to propagate lies about the 2020 election. It’s clear he will run for office again but his vice grip on the Republican Party is waning ever so slightly. His audiences are getting smaller despite the loosening of COVID restrictions, indicating that his rally schtick is getting tired and repetitive. His endorsements weren’t particularly helpful in the past, with Senate candidates like David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, Roy Moore, and Lou Barletta all losing after getting a nod of approval from Trump. There are signs that they will be even less significant in 2022, given that he has lost his Twitter bully pulpit. Trump supported Texas congressional candidate Susan Wright who lost a Republican primary in August of 2021.
Some Republicans are becoming less servile to Donald Trump, smelling weakness on him. He will have serious challengers in the 2024 GOP primary, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence who could peel away some Evangelical support, his old rival turned ally Senator Ted Cruz, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. Trump still has enough clout with the far right to vanquish all of those challengers. However, he lost in 2020 because Independent centrists were offended by his abrasive style, uncomfortable with his racial and ethnic hostility, frustrated by his neverending scandals and insulted by his aversion to the truth. More than ever, Donald Trump needs a seemingly pragmatic running mate that softens his image and makes him palatable to malleable voters.
The answer is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Scott is clearly very ambitious and wants to occupy the White House, but cannot beat Trump at this moment. No matter how much he disavows antiracism, the GOP electorate will only support him as a number two. He is perhaps too moderate to capture the imagination of the far right base. Scott is also a bachelor and is Black, and could very well suffer the same fate as Black Republicans who came before him like the late Herman Cain and Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson. Granted he is much more politically savvy, astute, and articulate than the names I mentioned, but astute and articulate doesn’t always win GOP primaries, and there is no better evidence of that than Donald Trump himself.
Scott fills two major needs for Donald Trump and makes things exponentially harder for Biden and/or Kamala Harris. Trump's reputation as a racist is well deserved, based upon accounts of people who worked for him and his own public statements. However, the accusations have made him even more appealing to many white people across the country who feel they are unfairly accused of racism and believe the term should only be reserved for those who burn crosses. They are thoroughly satisfied by the “I have a Black friend” approach to accusations of racism, and would be elated to have Scott stand beside Trump. Scott’s presence would assuage the discomfort of centrist whites and leave Democrats with the more difficult job of explaining how Trump’s efforts to overturn the election in places like Fulton County and Philadelphia were also attempts to disenfranchise Black voters.
It’s common knowledge that Black women are the foundation of the Democratic electorate, however black men are a more pliable voting block. If Tim Scott can move the needle ever so slightly by getting them to sit the election out or even vote for Donald Trump, Democrats are in big trouble in November of 2024. Kamala Harris’ presence on the ticket does absolutely nothing to secure the votes of Black men. In fact, it may hurt the Democratic pitch to Black men. Tim Scott is known to many for working across the aisle on police reform (which failed because of Scott’s refusal to end qualified immunity). Vice President Harris is known as a law enforcement officer who locked up Black and brown men in San Francisco as District Attorney. While the truth is far more complicated, the perception of her record is largely negative.
Biden signed the American Rescue Plan, which has kept an estimated 3 million children out of poverty. Black and Latina/o children and families were some of the biggest beneficiaries. He was able to pass a massive Infrastructure bill on a bipartisan basis, something his predecessor was unable to accomplish. The bill will help Black and Latino communities by eliminating lead pipes that are disproportionately located in communities of color. It will also make public transportation more accessible to Black and brown people. The current administration has sent 40 judges to the federal bench, the most of any president in more than 4 decades. These judges could be in a position to defend issues important to African Americans like Affirmative Action. However, due to inadequate messaging especially to Blacks and Latina/os, the Biden Administration will have a short time to sell their accomplishments. Senator Scott’s presence makes it much harder to lob accusations of racism or to tie Trump to some of his supporters who are removed from reality (we all know who I’m talking about). He makes it easy for many Black potential voters to stay home, believing that Trump and Biden are no different from one another.
With Republicans likely to take both the House of Representatives and the Senate in 2022, the Biden administration is set to be bogged down in endless (and often baseless) congressional investigations and inquiries. Trump’s scandals and impeachment will be in the past, and fresh in people’s minds will be Biden’s issues. A scandal-filled Biden presidency can still seem tame standing next to Trump, but it looks different when Trump is lumped in with Tim Scott, whose career has been largely uncontroversial.
A Trump/Scott ticket is a dream for Republicans. It could bring together moderate Republicans and the far right, as well as woo some independents. It is a nightmare for Democrats, and their strategists should be thinking about this pairing now.
